B&T402 wrote:
As an asset class, how could even the stated current level of $767,818 be a rational point to deline to? That would have meant an increase of 45% over 3 years from the 2015 value, doesn't that sound fishy? What else have you got that has done this? And don't say dope stocks. I'm no expert, but given the nature of real estate, how there can be any comparison to any other investment vehicle or even the stock market itself? There is nothing to feel good about yet as far as I can see.
One small correction to your calculation - the ~45% rise is over 4 years, not 3 (starting point was Jan 2014). That's about 11.5% growth per year (non-compounded), which doesn't look quite as bad when compared to the overall stock market, which I think has been returning about 10% YoY over the long term.
Growth is still too high for property though IMO and is definitely in danger 'wait and see' territory. I just don't see anything in the immediate term that is a huge red flag trigger for a real downturn (sharp unemployment or interest rate hikes, slowing of immigration into GTA, lifting of artificial land restriction laws/Greenbelt, etc)